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Friday, May 30, 2025

Johnathan Parfrey says "Energy imbalance triggering climate change"

Gemini:
The concept of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) is fundamental to understanding climate change, captain of clarity. It refers to the difference between the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun and the amount of energy it radiates back into space.
Here's how it works and how it triggers climate change:
 * Earth's Energy Budget: Our planet constantly receives energy from the Sun, primarily in the form of shortwave (visible and ultraviolet) radiation. To maintain a stable temperature, Earth must radiate an equal amount of energy back into space, mostly as longwave (infrared) radiation. This balance is known as Earth's energy budget.
 * The Imbalance: When the incoming solar energy exceeds the outgoing energy, there's a positive energy imbalance. This means the Earth system is accumulating heat, leading to a warming of the planet. Conversely, a negative imbalance would lead to cooling.
 * Role of Greenhouse Gases: The primary driver of the current energy imbalance is the increase in greenhouse gases (like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere, largely from human activities such as burning fossil fuels. These gases act like a blanket, allowing incoming solar radiation to pass through but absorbing and re-emitting much of the outgoing infrared radiation. This traps heat within the Earth's atmosphere, reducing the amount of energy that escapes to space.
 * Radiative Forcing: Scientists use the term "radiative forcing" to quantify the influence a particular factor (like greenhouse gases) has on the Earth's energy balance. A positive radiative forcing indicates a warming effect, while a negative forcing indicates a cooling effect. The increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution have resulted in a significant positive radiative forcing, directly contributing to the energy imbalance.
 * Consequences of the Imbalance: The excess heat accumulated due to this imbalance manifests in various ways:
   * Increased Global Temperatures: The most direct consequence is the rise in average global temperatures.
   * Ocean Warming: A significant portion of the excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, leading to ocean warming, which in turn contributes to sea-level rise (due to thermal expansion of water) and impacts marine ecosystems.
   * Melting Ice: The stored heat also contributes to the melting of glaciers, ice sheets, and Arctic sea ice, further adding to sea-level rise and reducing Earth's albedo (reflectivity), which can lead to more warming.
   * Extreme Weather Events: The increased energy in the climate system can fuel more intense and frequent extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and stronger storms.
In essence, the energy imbalance is a direct measure of how much heat is being added to the Earth system, serving as a critical indicator of ongoing climate change.